فصلنامه اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
پیاپی 117 (بهار 1401)

Food security has various dimensions in the economic, social, cultural, natural resources and environmental fields, which is one of the most important components of development. Natural resources and the environment play an important role in the life and development of human societies and the sustainability of food security. In the present study, the effects of pollution emission and exploitation of natural resources on food security in Iran in the form of VECM model in the period of 1992-2017 were investigated. According to the results, energy productivity in the agricultural sector, value added in the agricultural sector and the use of natural resources in the studied period had a positive effect on Iran's food security index; in addition, the variables of carbon dioxide emission in the agricultural sector and the unemployment rate had a negative effect on the food security. The coefficient of the ECM variable indicated that in each period, 5.73 percent of the imbalance error would disappear. Establishing the necessary infrastructure to improve energy productivity in the agricultural sector, in order to increase production in this sector and thus, reduce the spread of pollution is recommended to improve food security, given the positive impact of energy efficiency.

Red meat plays an important role in providing animal protein of Iranian households. However, its supply has experienced some challenges stemming from exchange rate fluctuations, smuggling livestock to the neighboring countries, and importing frozen meat financed by subsidized currency. In addition, there has been significant emphasis on self-sufficiency and providing the red meat domestically. On the other hand, based on Falcon Mark index, Iran has encountered water tension, the situation that may be getting worse as self-sufficiency is more focused. Regarding the problem, this study aimed at investigating different scenarios of domestically-produced and import of red meat with due consideration of simultaneously minimizing the costs of red meat and water use. For this purpose, multiobjective programing was applied using data for 2000-2018 in which minimization of spending for domestic consumption and water footprint embodied in domestic production was included. The selected scenarios were different combinations of the weights for minimization objectives. The results showed that depending on the weights assigned to the objectives, providing 30-40 percent of domestic need from domestically produced red meat was recommended while the remaining need might be provided via imports. The findings revealed that recommended combination for domestically-produced and imported red meat could reduce the spending on domestic need and water footprint significantly, resulting in 63 percent and 42 percent reduction in water use and cost spending, respectively; in addition, greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced. These results are the result of importing sheep meat from Australia or cattle meat with bones from Brazil. In spite of a significant reduction in the objectives’ values, the selected countries for import revealed a low diversity.

Rice is one of the most important food items in the consumer basket of households and is one of the most widely consumed food products in Iran after wheat. Population growth, increasing consumption and demand, price fluctuations and welfare effects due to changes in the amount and price of rice require the attention, planning and foresight of policymakers and the country's planning system. In this study, the amounts of consumption and expenditure of urban households for the rice products (foreign rice grade 1 and grade 2 as well as four types of domestic rice) were estimated by seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) using related cross-sectional data in 2017 within the framework of inverse demand system and it was found that among the four reverse demand systems including IAIDS, IROT, INBR and ICBS, only Inverse Almost Ideal Demand System (IDIDS) was consistent with the research method data and preferred to the other three models, according to the results of Likelihood Ratio (LR) statistics. The study of substitution elasticity showed that the small number of substitution elasticitities between types of rice had little effect on the demand for one type of rice on the composition of other types of rice consumed. Other types of rice should be considered by planners in implementing protection and food security policies; and since rice is considered as an essential food for households, increasing the supply of this product to meet the demand growth in the future can be used as a favorable policy to increase consumer welfare.

The date is one of the most important export products in the Iranian agricultural sector. The significant share of dates in Iranian non-oil exports indicates the importance of the production and export of this product over the other agricultural products. Using numerical taxonomy approach, the present study aimed at investigating and determining the export pattern of Iranian dates based on market continuity indices, standard market continuity, average of price of date (US$), average import share of target country, coefficient of price fluctuation of date (US$), and coefficient of imported share of the target country fluctuation. The stugy results from prioritization of date exports to target countries indicated that the best export markets of Iranian Zahedi dates were Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkey, the best export markets of Iranian Stameran dates were Australia, UAE, Canada, UK and Poland, the best export markets of Iranian Mazafati dates were India, UAE, Turkey, Pakistan and Azerbaijan, the best export markets of Iranian Kabkab dates were Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, UAE and Iraq and the best export markets of Iranian Shahani dates were UAE and India. Considering the results of prioritization of the target countries in different tariff codes, it is recommended to take advantage of the preferential and bilateral agreements in the marketing of dates in the countries prioritized in each tariff code (presented in the results) so that the required conditions for export pattern change and access to the suggested pattern are provided.

After abandoning the managed floating exchange rate regime to reduce the effects of the US withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear agreement in 2018 and adopting a multi-exchange rate system, the border protection system for agricultural products distorted in two ways: first, due to allocating different rate currency to various goods; and second, as a result of calculating the customs duties and commercial profits with the appreciated exchange rate. In this study, assume that the import pattern is maintained constant like as in 2020, given no change in marketing margins, the effects of changes in the ‘calculated exchange rate of customs duties and commercial profits’ on the level of prices and also the efficiency of border measures for support of Iranian agricultural products were investigated by using the differentiation in the weighted average value of imported goods after clearance at two different exchange rates and the weighted average of import tariffs during the period 2016-2020. The results showed that the rate of increase in commodity prices resulting from the implementation of this policy was directly related to the average weighted tariff rate. So, it is estimated that the cost of imported agricultural products will increase by an average of 7.6 to 12.6 percent directly. Therefore, due to the increasing level of border protection, a pattern for selective linear reduction of a few tariff lines proposed in the 1400 budget bill is not enough to modify the agricultural products tariff system; and it is necessary to revise the commercial profit of agricultural products tariffs as well.

This study aimed at investigating the effect of severe food price increases on family nutrition pattern in 2019 and determining the level of consumer vulnerability. For this purpose, the vulnerability of urban households in Azadshahr County as one of the most critical areas of Golestan province of Iran in terms of food security was evaluated and analyzed. The required information was collected through the questionnaire of food expenditure and household income and with the help of Golestan Health Center. In order to obtain the results, the Quadratic ideal demand system (QAIDS) was estimated by dividing the urban households with higher and lower average incomes. Then, the vulnerability index of the households was calculated after food price increase. The results showed that after rising prices, the households were in poor condition, so that the vulnerability index for the higher and lower income groups was 15.04 and 25.4, respectively. This fact emphasizes the need for consumer protection to improve food security and standard of living.

According to reports from the Iranian Ministry of Health, the food insecurity situation in Tehran province is serious and a significant part of the province's population is facing a lack of nutrients in the food basket; this has led to an increase in the incidence of various diseases among Tehranian households. In this regard, although with the decision of the Working Group on Health and Food Security and the participation of various executive bodies, especially during 2000s and 2010s, various programs have been carried out to improve food security in Tehran province, but the spread of various deficiencies and diseases in the province is likely to be as a result of an unfavorable pattern and food insecurity. Since ensuring health and food security is one of the strategic goals of the 20-year Iran Development Perspective Document, in this study, based on the classification of the commodity groups of the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) and using the nutritional performance matrix, the food consumption patterns were initially identified in different income deciles of Tehran province; then, following the calculation of food security index for these deciles, the effect of income levels on food security of the households was investigated using the logit model. The results showed that the middle and upper income deciles had more valuable and diverse food baskets than the lower deciles of the society and the consumption of grains and fats among them was lower and in return, they had a higher consumption of legumes, sugar and sweets, meat, fresh fruits, milk, dairy and eggs, nuts, beverages and ready food. Based on the study findings, the variables of membership in the top three income deciles, age of household head, place of residence, size of home, employment of  household head, household income and food diversity had a significantly positive effect on the household food security and the variables of membership in the bottom three income deciles,  gender of household head, place of residence, household size and working hours of the household head had a significantly negative effect on the food security of households.

Revenues from traditional ranching activity have declined in recent years. In addition, overgrazing on natural rangelands are known to be one of the main reasons of adverse environmental conditions. Some researchers believe that households will be able to achieve sustainable livelihoods by selecting the correct livelihood strategy and using capitals properly. In this regard, this study was conducted to investigate the impact of livelihood strategies and capitals on rangeland sustainability and reducing household poverty in the northern rangelands of Fars province in Iran. For this purpose, since nomads are the main users of rangelands, a sample of 393 nomadic households was selected to collect the required data. Also, to deal with the unknown heterogeneity, the environmental consequences and poverty of the livelihood strategies adopted by the households were examined in the counterfactual analysis framework using multinomial endogenous switching regression. The study results showed that if should the nomads select the strategy based on diversity of activities, the household poverty index would decrease by five percent and the rangeland sustainability index would increase by four percent. Therefore, by adopting a strategy based on diversity of activities, it is possible to simultaneously reduce household poverty and increase rangeland sustainability.

The stability of the cultivation and production of cotton or any other product requires its competitiveness with other agricultural products in the region. Therefore, research is one of the determinants of competitiveness of agricultural products. This study aimed at evaluating the economic impacts of cotton breeding research in Razavi Khorasan province of Iran under two scenarios of small open and closed economies. For this purpose, two categories of data related to technology (average yield increase, supply curve displacement parameter, research success probability, depreciation factor) and market (research costs, product price, supply price elasticity and discount rate) of cotton breeding research projects terminated during 2015-2019 in Razavi Khorasan Agricultural Research and Training Center were used in an economic surplus analysis method. Based on the results, under the scenario of small open economy, the average net present value of benefits, internal rate of return and the ratio of profit to cost of each breeding research were predicted and evaluated 12718000 thousand IRI rials, 55 percent and 7.6 and under the scenario of small closed economy, 9134351 thousand IRI rials, 50 percent and 5.7, respectively. These values ​​indicated the high efficiency and acceptable economic profitability of cotton breeding research under both scenarios, but the study results and findings indicated that the interaction and presence in global cotton markets would increase the benefits and distributive effects of agricultural research and cotton competitiveness in Razavi Khorasan province. Therefore, in agricultural research policy making, the degree of interaction of the country's economy with global markets should be considered.

Western sanctions against the Russian Federation and the Russian Federation's retaliation in 2014 and sanctions on food imports from the West, including the European Union, the United States, Australia, Canada and Norway, suggest that there may be changes in Russian consumers' preferences for cucumber. Imported from Iran has occurred. The present study tests this hypothesis using a nonparametric method based on the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preferences (GARP). In this regard, price and quantity data related to the import of Russian Federation cucumbers from Iran and the countries that had the most exports of this product to Russia (Turkey and China); Reviewed for the period 2017-2000. The results of the study show that a significant structural change in the preferences of Russian consumers occurred in 2003 in favor of Iranian cucumber, which indicates the stability and loyalty of Russian consumers to cucumbers imported from Iran. Finally, the political disputes between the Russian Federation and Turkey have provided a good opportunity to develop the export of Iranian products in the market of the Russian Federation. Ensuring the production of quality cucumbers throughout the year and not changing government policies on exports can help increase Iran's share of the Russian Federation market.